Le Cato Institute revient sur le rapport du Département du Trésor américain qui analysait la relation entre le déficit commercial des Etats-Unis et le cours du yuan chinois.
Il est vrai que ses conclusions se révélèrent surprenantes aux yeux d'un Congrès frileux et protectionniste:
The report’s key conclusion, that China is not a currency manipulator, was met with incredulity on the part of a number of members of Congress, some of whom suggested that Treasury’s inaction would move them closer to enacting provocative legislation to compel China to allow the yuan to rise. (...)
Many members of Congress have adopted the view that an intentionally undervalued yuan is the primary cause of the U.S. trade deficit with China. (...) But evidence suggests that the effects of other factors, such as changes in relative incomes and wealth, the availability of domestic and other foreign substitutes, and the real costs and opportunity costs of finding new suppliers, might play a more significant role than relative price changes in predicting trade flows. A review of the relationship between the dollar and trade with our major partners suggests that currency values have had little to do with changes in the trade balance in recent years.
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